RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Bloeiende wereldhandelsgroei niet langer een zekerheid (Dutch)

De wereldhandelsgroei blijft al vijf jaar achter bij de economische groei. Deze trend wordt deels gevoed door handelsbelemmeringen die op termijn ook de economische activiteit kunnen remmen en dus is beleidsingrijpen vereist.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016

The Dutch economy is forecast to grow by 2½% in 2016, after projected growth of 2% in 2015. This growth is broad-based. The global economy is continuing to grow at a reasonable pace, but it is not really taking off unaided.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Economic Comment

Wat doet TTIP voor Nederland? (Dutch)

De EU en de VS onderhandelen momenteel over het handelsakkoord TTIP. De meeste studies wijzen op gematigd positieve economische effecten als TTIP wordt ingevoerd.

Economic Comment

Turkey: surprise landslide victory ensures AKP single-party rule

The AKP’s surprise victory at Turkey’s snap elections restores political stability, but the new cabinet needs to embark on structural reforms and boost central bank independency to uphold investor confidence amid elevated balance-of-payments risks.