RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: ongefundeerd optimisme (Dutch)

Het optimisme in de financiële markten is in onze ogen niet houdbaar en wij zien weer lagere rentes in de loop van 2020. Terwijl het Britse pond het meeste positieve nieuws wel heeft verwerkt, blijft de dollar voorlopig sterk. Fed renteverlagingen zullen uiteindelijk wel op de dollar gaan wegen.

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.