RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Bulgaria’s economic and political situation remains tense, as yet another government stepped down, the local financial system was shaken by organised bank runs, and bilateral relations with Russia soured markedly due to the halt of construction of the South Stream pipeline.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Russia’s economy is slowing down as a result of western sanctions and a drop in oil prices. Its outlook has also deteriorated due to lower investor confidence and a strengthening of the government’s control over the country.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

While Turkey’s economic growth started to slow in the second quarter, the central bank faces pressure to reverse its major January interest rate hike ahead of the 2015 parliamentary elections. As expected, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became Turkey’s first directly-elected president.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Six months ahead of its euro area accession, Lithuania’s economy performs strongly. While reciprocal EU and Russian sanctions are unlikely to derail growth this year, tensions with Russia may result in further boycotts of Lithuanian products.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Economic growth in Macedonia is expected to remain relatively robust, underpinned by recent reform efforts and FDI inflows. However, impediments to EU membership remain.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia’s economy deteriorated; growth fell and the Ruble depreciated. In recent weeks the situation has improved, but risks remain to the downsize, as we may not exclude additional sanctions from the west.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s newly-elected government promised to embark on a comprehensive structural reform programme as the country’s fiscal situation has deteriorated markedly, but the prospect of faltering economic growth could confront it with considerable social challenges.

Country Report

Country Report Austria

Austria’s economic growth is set to gain steam, but its banks may face rising challenges in Russia and Ukraine, where they have sizeable exposures. Meanwhile, the re-elected ‘Grand Coalition’ government finally decided on a bad bank solution for Hypo Alpe Adria.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s external vulnerabilities decreased in the first quarter of this year, as the current account deficit started to decline and net capital inflows resumed. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Erdoğan’s dominant position was strengthened by his party’s victory at the March 30th municipal elections.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia avoided a sovereign bail-out last year, as an asset quality review revealed manageable bank recapitalization costs. Yet, the country is not out of the woods yet, as its increasingly instable government struggles to rein in this year’s budget deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Slovakia

The Slovak economy is expected to grow modestly by roughly 2.5% in 2014. Unfortunately, this does not significantly aid the structurally weak labour market, since unemployment is expected to remain persistently high. Meanwhile, the election of a new president bodes well for the business environment and the checks and balances of the political system.