RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Bulgaria: growth recovering, but challenges ahead

After a mild recovery of the fiscal balance in 2015, the challenge for Bulgaria lies in continuation of prudent policy to enable stable future growth and ensure stable levels of public debt.

Country Report

Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Country Report

Luxembourg: staying on top in a changing environment

Luxembourg continued to show robust growth in 2015. New fiscal and financial regulation is heading towards Luxembourg, challenging its financial sector-driven growth model.

Country Report

Portugal: weak reform momentum threatens feeble growth

Portugal continued to grow in 2015, after exiting the EU/IMF bailout programme in 2014, which signals a substantial increase of economic and financial stability. However, reform momentum is weak while the country still has many vulnerabilities.

Country Report

France: Growth returns but remains structurally weak

Economic activity is recovering after several years of near-zero growth. But the French economy still faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitive position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Country Report

Hungary: Stable growth, but government policies remain unorthodox

Economic growth in 2015 has been robust thanks to the usage of EU-funds and strong external demand. The fiscal situation improved, although with controversial measures. In general, the government maintained its populist and nationalist policies.

Country Report

Turkey: ongoing political instabiliy

Turkey’s economy expanded by 4% last year, but Russian sanctions and weaker tourist arrivals will negatively affect growth this year. In spite of the AKP’s regained parliamentary majority, Turkey’s political situation remains volatile which could once more weigh on essential foreign capital inflows.

Country Report

Switzerland: quick economic rebound after massive appreciation 2015

The Swiss export sector was affected by a sharp appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) following the Swiss central bank’s (SNB) decision to scrap the currency ceiling early 2015. However, economic growth held up and we expect a rebound of economic growth and exports this year.

Country Report

Belgium: recovery at a snail's pace

The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.

Country Report

Ireland: The Celtic Tiger is back

Ireland posted very strong growth of 7.8% last year which supports deleveraging and house prices but asset quality of banks remains poor and could hurt banks and the government in the future. As possibly worst affected, Ireland is closely following the Brexit debate.

Country Report

Germany: stable economic growth with challenges ahead

The German economy performs well on the back of a competitive export sector and is rebalancing towards domestic demand, driven by a strong labour market. The recent surge in immigration poses a significant challenge for the German economy.

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.