RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Germany

GDP growth in 2010 was strongest since unification thanks to strong exports and investment. The export outlook has become far less certain. Consumption shows no sign of revival as nominal wage growth remains subdued. Inflationary pressures are building amid sharp rebound in commodity prices, the country’s strong economic conditions and the ultra loose monetary policy stance of the ECB.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Italy

The sluggish economic recovery seems to have come to a halt in the last quarter of 2010. Export growth kept up well, but this has not been translated into higher industrial production. In all, the Italian economy had a rather weak close to 2010. With government austerity having started in January 2011, the start of this year probably has not been much stronger.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Spain

We expect the recovery in 2011 to be sluggish, similar to last year. Domestic demand is unlikely to grow robustly, while export boosting gains on the back of increased price competitiveness have hardly been realised. As such, it is important that wage growth does not rise in line with inflation. Though this is bad for purchasing power and consumption, it is necessary for the rebalancing of the economy.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy appears to be closing the year strongly in 10Q4, fuelled partly by robust private consumption. When consumers will be restrained in 2011 by austerity measures and slower growth of purchasing power, producers could step in to fill this gap with rising investments. Despite their rising (foreign) order outlook, limited domestic demand and low capacity utilisation mean this scenario is far from certain.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recovery had plenty of pace in the closing stages of 2010. That said, the services sector weakened considerably. We expect private consumption to grow robustly in 10Q4. But consumption growth in 2011 will be weak amid the upcoming fiscal squeeze.

Economic Report Dutch version

Euro crisis: ‘we’re not like that!’

Investors have been keeping a close watch on the financial situation of a number of eurozone countries since the Autumn of 2009. Financial markets are chiefly concerned about Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

Economic Report

Europa uit balans (Dutch)

De Zuid-Europese landen staan onder hervormingsdruk. Flexibilisering van arbeids- en productmarkten krijgt momenteel veel aandacht, maar dit Themabericht toont dat er meer nodig (en in gang gezet) is om de inflatiedruk af te laten nemen en zo de concurrentiepositie van deze landen te versterken.