RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economic Comment

UK Budget: another missed opportunity

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economic Comment

India’s budget wins little applause

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economic Comment

Pace of austerity and fiscal fundamentals

The fear of a rating downgrade or losing market access has caused many advanced countries to embark on a very aggressive fiscal consolidation plan. This can potentially be harmful for output and employment growth.