RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Japan: Decent economic growth in first half of 2019, central bank weighs options

Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.

Economic Report

Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning

The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report Dutch version

New round of US tariffs raises the pressure on China

On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.

Economic Report

China: de groeivertraging die je wist dat zou komen? (Dutch)

Wij verwachten dat de Chinese bbp-groei afneemt in het tweede kwartaal. Dit past in het beeld van een geleidelijke groeivertraging als gevolg van een afkoelende binnenlandse economie. Deze vertraging kan echter harder uitvallen als het handelsconflict tussen China en de VS verder escaleert.

Economic Report

China: handelsspanningen versus binnenlandse stabiliteit (Dutch)

Het nationale volkscongres laat zien dat China de binnenlandse focus meer verschuift naar de kwaliteit van economische groei. Ondertussen nemen de spanningen met de VS steeds verder toe. Dit zorgt voor grote onzekerheden en risico’s bij het huidige economische beeld.

Economic Report

North Korea’s pressure point: the economy

China’s economic lifeline is key for North Korea’s economy. Recent sanctions are expected to put more pressure on the regime in Pyongyang, but China also has its strategic interests related to North Korea.