RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Economic Update

Russia: Economic slowdown continues

Russia’s economic activity has continued to slow in 13Q3 and we expect growth in 2013 as a whole to be around 1.5%. The economic slowdown is starting to adversely impact public finances. The central bank has left rates on hold for now, despite falling inflation.

Economic Update

India: Battered but not beaten

Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Update

Emerging Markets: weak external demand

Struggling with weak external demand, many emerging markets are showing relatively weak economic growth. However, in others, strong domestic demand, private or public, is pushing growth to relatively strong levels.

Economic Update

India: Weak recovery after disappointing year

In 2012-13, growth in India fell to the lowest rate in a decade. We expect a modest recovery going forward. A favorable monsoon is likely to boost growth somewhat, but the current account deficit constrains the room to apply (further) stimulus.

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Economic Update

Economic Update India

India's Central Statistical Office government is now expecting GDP growth in Financial Year 2012/13 to come in at only 5% y-o-y. We expect the economy to recover somewhat this year. Economic growth is thus likely to strengthen to 6-6.5%.