RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Risk of de-globalization

This article is part of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook. In this piece, we take a closer look at the risk of de-globalisation.

Economic Comment

Grieks akkoord omzeilt hete hangijzers (Dutch)

Het IMF is met de Europese geldschieters overeengekomen om de Griekse overheidsschuld gedeeltelijk te herstructureren. De genomen maatregelen zijn echter een kleine en nog altijd uitermate onzekere stap in de richting van schuldhoudbaarheid.

Economic Comment

Meevallende krimp in het eurogebied (Dutch)

De economische krimp in het eurogebied was in het derde kwartaal iets kleiner dan een kwartaal eerder. Dat is positiever dan wij verwacht hadden. Wij denken dat de krimp in het laatste kwartaal van het jaar weer sterker zal zijn.

Economic Comment

Economic visibility must improve quickly

Policy uncertainty remains high and this will have negative repercussions for growth. Thus far, financial markets have remained optimistic, but policymakers should not expect this to continue for far longer if policy visibility does not improve.

Economic Comment

How are exposures to periphery evolving?

Domestic residents of the euro periphery countries have increased their exposure to their respective governments as foreigners headed for the exit. This is an unwelcome development since it further reinforces the link between sovereigns and banks.

Economic Report

Zuid-Europa en Ierland in actie (Dutch)

Landen die financiële steun nodig hebben moeten hun overheidsfinanciën en economie flink aanpakken. In dit Themabericht laten wij op hoofdlijnen zien dat er inmiddels in Zuid-Europa en Ierland veel is gedaan en veranderd.

Economic Report

Euro crisis: institutional tug-of-war

The Economic and Monetary Union still lacks a credible crisis mechanism. The current ECB approach provides only a temporary solution. A permanent solution most likely requires muddling through for some time yet.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that debt, which has risen sharply in most advanced countries, is not necessarily a bad thing if it is at sustainable levels.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 2)

In part 2, we look at the post-crisis balance sheet adjustment process and conclude that (i) it will take many years to complete and (ii) the transitional phase will be economically painful.

Economic Report

Germany and further EU integration

Elections in Germany in 2013 might result in a stable and EU-friendly grand coalition. However, recent appeals against the ESM ratification suggest that politicians will be constrained by legal boundaries regarding further EU integration.

Economic Comment

German deliberations on the ESM

On July 10, the German Constitutional Court holds the first hearing regarding appeals against the ESM, the fiscal compact and an amendment to Article 136 TFEU, which legally anchors a stability mechanism in the Treaty.

Economic Comment

United Kingdom: Opening the monetary spigots

The UK monetary authorities have come up with new credit easing and quantitative easing measures to jump-start the ailing economy. We continue to remain unconvinced that these measures will materially alter the economic outlook.

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Economic Comment

Eurozone in milde recessie (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

Het eurogebied is volgens de gangbare definitie van twee kwartalen krimp van het BBP net niet terug in recessie. Sentimentindicatoren voor april en de hernieuwde onrust over de Europese schuldencrisis wijzen echter op hernieuwde krimp in 12K2.

Economic Comment

UK: Expansionary fiscal austerity is a myth

The recent GDP release suggests that the UK has also joined the recessionary club. However, reliable leading indicators point to a high chance of output being eventually revised upwards.