RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.

Economic Report

Germany: Second wave of infections inevitable

Although the number of new infections was limited at first, the situation is quickly worsening in Germany. Consequently, the government has imposed additional containment measures. We expect the government to continue to support the economy.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Comment

Japan: A farewell to Abe

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

The US recession of 2020 - The horror version

We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.

Economic Report Dutch version

COVID-19 pushes Germany into recession

At the start of 2020 sentiment indicators indicated a lacklustre growth for the Germany economy. The COVID-19 virus drastically changed that view however. We have revised our forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%. We forecast a recession in the second quarter of 2020.

Economic Report

Japan: Decent economic growth in first half of 2019, central bank weighs options

Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.

Economic Comment

Eurozone growth accelerates in the first quarter of 2019

Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2019. Domestic demand in the Eurozone is expected to be the main driver as external demand was weak. Italy climbed out of recession in the first quarter of 2019, while Spain remains the Eurozone’s bright star.