Economic Report
India: What is the impact of the next US president?
The policy plans of the next president of the United States has consequences for the Indian economy in terms of the USD/INR trajectory, trade and GDP metrics and geopolitics.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
19 Publications
Economic Report
Going down: Revising our economic forecasts for India
We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.
Economic Comment
Phase One Monitor: September Update. Decoupling taking shape
Based on the latest trade data, China only has five months left to crank up imports of US goods and services by USD 100bn in order to reach the 2020 target in the Phase One trade deal. This seems unrealistic and we believe that the Phase One trade deal will break down before the year is out.
Economic Comment
India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress
Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.
Economic Comment Dutch version
China: Domestic cooling down while external heat rises further
Most recent monthly figures confirm our view of a continuous slowdown of economic growth. More stimulus is on the cards, but this will be less massive and more targeted than during previous episodes. The trade war developments can be characterized by ‘one step forward, two steps back’.
Economic Report
Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning
The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.
Economic Comment
China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth
The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.
Economic Comment
China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization
China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.
Economic Comment
China: weak start of the Year of the Pig
The first months of 2019 show a mixed, but weak picture as far as economic activity is concerned. The National People’s Congress of 2019 focused on emphasizing stability, but this was combined with contradictory goals.
Economic Report Dutch version
China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)
Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.
Economic Comment
The G20 High Stakes Dinner between the US and China
At their G20 dinner date, the United States and China have agreed to stop imposing new tariffs for a period of 90 days. We regard this as can-kicking at best, and it arguably puts the US in an even stronger position going forward.
Economic Report Dutch version
New round of US tariffs raises the pressure on China
On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.