RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it

There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.

Economic Report Dutch version

New round of US tariffs raises the pressure on China

On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.

Economic Report

China: de groeivertraging die je wist dat zou komen? (Dutch)

Wij verwachten dat de Chinese bbp-groei afneemt in het tweede kwartaal. Dit past in het beeld van een geleidelijke groeivertraging als gevolg van een afkoelende binnenlandse economie. Deze vertraging kan echter harder uitvallen als het handelsconflict tussen China en de VS verder escaleert.

Economic Report

Brexit update: May-be later

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, averts another crisis and pushes the Brexit can down the road making it likely that the Brexit negotiations run into further delays and the withdrawal agreement is ready only towards the end of 2018.

Economic Report

Germany: Merkel’s sports minister causes trouble

The German CSU was to propose a plan to turn away migrants at the border who had registered elsewhere in the EU, prompting a veto from Merkel and leading to a showdown. The current deal provides Merkel with a two-week deadline to try to find (bilateral) deals in Europe.

Economic Report Dutch version

Spain is not Italy!

Unlike in Italy, Spain’s new government is very much pro-EU and has indicated to comply with the European budget rules. The economic impact of the government shuffle will expectedly be very limited in the short term. Early elections are likely.