Economic Comment
Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.
Economic Comment
The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.
Economic Comment
Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.
Economic Report
Although the number of new infections was limited at first, the situation is quickly worsening in Germany. Consequently, the government has imposed additional containment measures. We expect the government to continue to support the economy.
Economic Report
After the major slump in the first half of the year, Spain’s economy partially recovered in the third quarter. Going forward, economic growth will be very weak until a vaccine is widely available. We forecast GDP to contract with 13.3% this year.
Economic Comment
Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.
Economic Comment
Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.
Economic Comment
The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.
Economic Comment
As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.
Economic Report
The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.
Economic Report
We expect US GDP to fall by 6% in 2020. After a sharp supply-induced contraction in March we expect the economy to rebound after the lockdown is over. However, the damage done to demand is likely to remain a drag on the economy for years.
Economic Report Dutch version
At the start of 2020 sentiment indicators indicated a lacklustre growth for the Germany economy. The COVID-19 virus drastically changed that view however. We have revised our forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%. We forecast a recession in the second quarter of 2020.
Economic Report
Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.
Economic Report
New left-wing government looks set to take office, but talks can still break down. Whichever government comes in, none of them looks capable of breaking with Italy’s unstable political past, let alone effectively deal with its long-standing problems.
