Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
The EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks. This means that there will be yet another showdown in Westminster.
A lot has happened since we’ve published our previous Brexit Outlook. The clash between the British Government and Parliament was entirely expected, but eventually culminated into an unprecedented series of dramatic events.
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
The rise in house prices is slowing, as expected. Whereas house prices rose 9 percent on average in 2018, we expect an average rise of 6 percent in 2019 and 4 percent in 2020. Sales are expected to stabilize around 205,000.
Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.
Boris Johnson is the new British Prime Minister and his team of hardcore Brexiteers points towards a tougher stance on Brexit under his leadership. Brexit is just about to get messier in the coming months.
Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Our outlook for the global economy has become less rosy and the downside risks have increased. Global trade, for example, is clearly slowing down and we expect a recession in the US by the end of 2020. We also expect the trade war between the US and China to linger on for a sustained period of time.
Theresa May has said she will resign on 7 June, after her last attempt to save the EU-UK deal failed to garner sufficient support last week. A tougher stance on Brexit and more political turmoil are likely to follow.
The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.
Article 50 was extended for a second time during a special EU summit on 10 April. The new cut-off date is 31 October, the date by which the UK must have approved the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and have translated it to domestic law. An earlier departure is possible as soon as the UK ratifies a withdrawal deal with the EU.