RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Spain: investment is back, consumption is up

Spain’s economic recovery has strengthened in the third quarter, mainly due to growth in consumption and investment. This also improves next year’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the external rebalancing is in full swing and government finances are improving.

Economic Update

Germany: at least, it is no recession

German GDP-growth was weak in the third quarter. It was mainly driven by domestic consumption, while gross capital formation attributed negatively. Going forward, we expect this picture to remain unchanged.

Economic Update

Spain: GDP and employment growth on the rise

GDP growth remains robust, mainly owing to a rise in private consumption. We expect employment growth to pick up, especially in the services sector. The fiscal reform announced in the wake of next year’s election puts the deficit target at risk.

Economic Update

Germany: Europe’s growth engine faltered

In the second quarter, the German economy shrank by 0.2% q-o-q. Without the negative impact of the warm winter, GDP growth would probably have been positive. Hard data also shows that the German economy had a strong start of the current quarter.

Economic Update

Spain: increasing growth, decreasing inflation

Gradually increasing GDP growth in recent quarters and a further improvement of sentiment show that the Spanish recovery is on a solid footing. However, despite this recovery, inflation remains worryingly low.

Economic Update

Germany: mild winter dominates the figures

The German economy had a strong start of 2014 growing 0.8% q-o-q. The growth acceleration can partly be attributed to the soft winter that boosted construction activity. Therefore we expect a somewhat lower growth figure for the current quarter.

Economic Update

Germany: die ‘Exportweltmeister’

The German economy posted a solid growth figure in the final quarter of 2013. Unexpectedly, it was almost fully driven by exports. For the current year, we expect German growth to be supported by both exports and domestic demand.

Economic Update

France: Consumption driven recovery

Recent data show that the economic recovery remains in place, albeit very gradual. Ongoing real wage growth will make sure that household consumption –once again- will remain an important driver of GDP growth this year.

Economic Update

Spain: Growing while rebalancing

Recent data show that the gradual recovery of the Spanish economy will continue going forward. In addition, ongoing export growth and muted wage pressure indicate that the much needed rebalancing process is still on track.