We expect that UK’s vote to leave the EU will negatively affect economic growth in the eurozone. We believe that the impact in 2016 is rather small, but we lower our growth forecast for 2017 for both the eurozone and the Netherlands by ¼%-point.
In case of a Brexit, a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty is likely, hurting the British financial sector and business investments. Other risks stem from the high private debt and the banking sector.
Economic Comment Dutch version
On 19 February, European leaders reached an agreement on reforming British EU membership. Despite some gains, Cameron also had to make concessions and as a result, secured fewer reforms than he had promised ahead of the EU-summit.