RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Institutional quality and economic performance

Institutional quality and economic development reinforce each other over the longer term, but we argue that institutional quality leads this virtuous circle. It unlocks growth potential and does not intrinsically suffer from diminishing returns.

Special Dutch version

Sub-Saharan Africa: the Long Road up Mount Progress

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing headwinds from lower commodity prices, China’s slower growth, and normalization of monetary policy in the US. This has made the region’s economic outlook challenging, though not imminently gloomy.

Special Dutch version

Sub-Saharan Africa: struggling, but still growing

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing headwinds from lower commodity prices, a slower growing China and possibly rising US interest rates. This has made the economic outlook gloomier but we still expect the region to grow about 4% in the near future.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.