Economic Report
One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.
Column
Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.
Economic Report
China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.
Economic Comment
The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.
Special
China’s new five year plan is ambitious, yet it contains inherent trade-offs. When push comes to shove, we believe China will sacrifice growth for resilience and deleveraging for domestic stability.
Special
Het investeringsverdrag tussen de EU en China zou op papier meer toegang voor EU-bedrijven moeten bieden tot China en een gelijker speelveld creëren. In de praktijk loopt het risico om een mislukking te worden voor de EU.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Economic Update
A new strain of coronavirus has been found in Japan while a third wave of cases sweeps over the country. That will cause the economy to contract in the first quarter of this year. In that sense, the situation will get worse before it gets better.
Column
Het economisch herstel van China biedt wellicht een kijkje in de toekomst van Nederland. Daar is het initiële herstel snel gegaan, maar het laatste gedeelte gaat langzamer.
Economic Comment
The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.
Economic Update
Three Chinese State Owned Entities (SOEs) have defaulted on their bonds, possibly foreshadowing there is more to come. Meanwhile, tensions with the US are still increasing, and China’s economic recovery continues to be lopsided.
Special
China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.
Economic Comment
Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.
Economic Comment
China’s new Five Year Plan signals the country’s increased focus on self-reliance. Meanwhile, the economic recovery is continuing. Tensions between the US and China are here to stay, irrespective of who the new US president will be.
Economic Comment
Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.