RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Economic Report

India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...

In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.

Economic Report

India’s fiscal path remains slippery after Modi's BJP win

India’s consistent budget deficits are expected to continue over the coming years under a BJP-led government in the second term. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower elevated debt levels as India’s weak fiscal position is a major macroeconomic challenge.

Economic Report

Trumponomics: Trans-Pacific Partnership is the first trade victim

In this piece, we analyze which region loses most because of the TPP withdrawal by Trump. The US withdrawal has given China, which was excluded from TPP, opportunities to fill a void and to further expand its influence in Asia.

Special

Oil: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.