RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Frozen credit

Faced with an unsustainable current account deficit and declining international reserves, the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten introduced a six month freeze on private credit extension, but more needs to be done.

Economic Comment

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economic Comment

UK Budget: another missed opportunity

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economic Comment

India’s budget wins little applause

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economic Comment

Vietnam: Stay on course (Macro Comment)

After experiencing somewhat of an economic rollercoaster ride in 2011, inflation in Vietnam is finally easing. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s economic situation remains vulnerable and the government should make sure it stays on course.

Economic Comment

Pace of austerity and fiscal fundamentals

The fear of a rating downgrade or losing market access has caused many advanced countries to embark on a very aggressive fiscal consolidation plan. This can potentially be harmful for output and employment growth.

Economic Comment

Eurozone terug in het rood (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

Het Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP) van de eurozone kromp in 11K4 met 0,3% k-o-k. Gezien het zwakke sentiment en de daling van de industriële productie, komt de BBP-krimp niet als een verrassing.

Economic Comment

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Economic Comment

Maastricht Treaty turned 20, hooray?

The 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty went largely unnoticed due to the euro crisis. Now the officials have come up with stricter fiscal rules to avoid a repeat of this crisis. Only time will tell whether the taken steps are sufficient.

Economic Comment

Franse btw-verhoging lijkt doel te missen (Dutch)

Na het verlies van de AAA-rating bij Standard & Poor’s kondigde president Sarkozy economische hervormingen aan. Afgelopen weekend maakte hij onder andere bekend het btw-tarief te willen verhogen.

Economic Comment

Schuldencrisis kost Frankrijk haar AAA (Dutch)

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) heeft afgelopen vrijdag de rating van negen eurozone landen verlaagd. Frankrijk, na Duitsland de tweede economie van de eurozone, verliest haar AAA-rating.

Economic Comment

Maakt of volgt S&P de markt? (Macro Comment) (Dutch)

De grote rating-actie van S&P zal waarschijnlijk slechts beperkte gevolgen hebben voor de staatsrentes in het eurogebied. Maar het benadrukt wel het grote aantal onzekerheden dat de komende tijd voor onrust op de financiële markten kan zorgen.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.