RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment Dutch version

COVID-19 Economic Dashboard

Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

Germany: Additional containment measures

Germany will implement additional containment measures to prevent a further rise of infections from 16 December to 20 January. Non-essential shops, schools and barbers will have to close. Closing of non-essential shops could cost as much as EUR 3.5bn TVA in December and January.

Economic Report

Germany: Second wave of infections inevitable

Although the number of new infections was limited at first, the situation is quickly worsening in Germany. Consequently, the government has imposed additional containment measures. We expect the government to continue to support the economy.

Economic Comment

Germany: Economic recovery?

The German economy shrank by a record breaking 10.1% in the second quarter, but still fared much better than European peers. We expect a technical recovery in the third quarter.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.