Special
Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.
Special
The current crisis in the Ukraine brings latent problems for the German economic model to the fore. We argue that there are four options for Germany: Muddling on, engaging with the West, strategic autonomy within Europe and engaging with the East.
Special
The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.
Special
Het investeringsverdrag tussen de EU en China zou op papier meer toegang voor EU-bedrijven moeten bieden tot China en een gelijker speelveld creëren. In de praktijk loopt het risico om een mislukking te worden voor de EU.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Special
This Special forecasts the world order of 2030. We shows how past world orders collapsed due to weakening hegemonic power and project to 2030 show while the US will likely remain top dog, our world order will again be far more fragmented overall.
Special
So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?
Special
We find clear indications that US supply chains have started to shift away from China. Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan are the main beneficiaries of this shift. But the US also seems to be benefiting as we see signs of reshoring.
Special
Door de coronacrisis gaan er weer stemmen op dat Italië de eurozone maar beter kan verlaten. De euro opgeven is echter gemakkelijker gezegd dan gedaan en brengt hoge kosten en risico’s met zich mee. Voor Italië zelf, maar ook voor de achterblijvers.
Special
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
Special
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Special
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
