Special
Using a satellite model, we analyze the economic impact of European deindustrialization and find substantial adverse effects on the exchange rate, GDP, and unemployment.
Economic Report
During COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the pledges made at COP26 will have to be converted into actions. This article discusses where COP26 left us and what we can expect from the coming ‘African COP.’
Special
Italian elections on September 25 are set to be won by the conservative right coalition. Importantly, Italy will continue to support sanctions against Russia and eurozone membership, but frictions with the EU and the risk of fiscal slippage will increase.
Special
On September 14, the European Commission proposed specific intervention measures to address the soaring energy prices. Such intervention is a complex task, and any approach has its own drawbacks. This report reviews the proposal and contextualises it, among all the possible ones.
Special
There is a real risk of gas shortages this winter or in spring in certain Eurozone member states, such as Germany and Italy. Despite the search for alternatives for Russian gas, drastic cuts in gas demand are required in Germany.
Special
EU leaders have agreed to ban all Russian seaborne oil imports. The ban, amid already high inflation, intense supply chain pressure and tightening financial conditions, will push the Eurozone into a recession.
Special
Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.
Economic Update
High inflation keeps a grip on the Dutch economy. Economic growth is leveling off, but we do not expect a recession. The war in Ukraine is the largest source of uncertainty.
Special
The EU is further tightening the thumbscrews on Russia. In this updated scenario analysis we take a closer look at the economic impact of an energy import ban. A decline in Eurozone GDP over the next four quarters seems all but given now.
Special
The Ukraine war has sparked another supply chain crisis. EU industry will be impacted via higher prices of both energy and non-energy commodities, lengthened delivery times of inputs and possibly shortages. Germany and Italy are relatively vulnerable.
Special
The current energy crisis has highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with our dependence on Russian gas. The EU aims to become fully independent from Russian energy, but replacing Russian gas fully is easier said than done.
Economic Quarterly Report
The war in Ukraine is expected to lead to strongly rising prices and impediments to foreign trade, resulting in lower economic growth in the Netherlands this year.
Special
The EU’s carbon market is going through a perfect storm of disruptions. Despite the current turbulence, we expect a structurally high EU carbon price for the long term. Companies affected by the EU ETS must start drafting their adaptation strategies.
Special
The economic effect of Omicron will be contained in Q1 before growth accelerates from Q2 onwards. However, higher prices and lower global growth, fuelled by the war in Ukraine, drag on economic growth in the second half of 2022. As such, the recovery is likely to be not as strong as it looks at face value.
Special
The war in Ukraine has significantly raised the risk of a recession in the Eurozone this year. With its large exposure to key Russian and Ukrainian import goods inflation could rise even faster and amplify a ‘supply shock’ that had already been in the making.
