RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: doorgaan tot het gaatje (Dutch)

Onvrede met de recente lage inflatiecijfers en de (te) sterke euro waren voor de ECB Beleidsraad in juni aanleiding om met een reeks van nieuwe beleidsmaatregelen het risico op een ‘neerwaartse’ spiraal van lagere inflatie en inflatieverwachtingen in te dammen. Wij zien ruimte voor een verdere verbetering van het sentiment, want het is duidelijk dat de ECB bereid is tot het gaatje te gaan.

Economic Quarterly Report

Japan: vooruitzichten nog niet spectaculair (Dutch)

We hebben er lang op moeten wachten, maar in het eerste kwartaal groeide de Japanse economie substantieel. De hoop op tenminste een paar kwartalen stevige BBP-groei is gerechtvaardigd. Toch zijn de vooruitzichten voor de rest van het jaar nog allerminst spectaculair.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economische kerngegevens (Dutch)

De meest recente economische voorspellingen voor de Nederlandse en internationale economie en de financiële markten.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.

Country Report

Country Report China

China’s housing market has been weakening recently, but exports seem to do rather well. The latest PMIs suggest the country should be able to avoid a hard landing.

Economic Update

Spain: increasing growth, decreasing inflation

Gradually increasing GDP growth in recent quarters and a further improvement of sentiment show that the Spanish recovery is on a solid footing. However, despite this recovery, inflation remains worryingly low.

Special

Het sociale gat van de eurozone (Dutch)

De werkloosheid in veel Westerse landen is op dit moment zeer hoog, zeker in de eurozone. De huidige regels in de eurozone zijn echter vooral gericht op het op orde krijgen van de overheidsfinanciën en niet op arbeidsmarktproblemen.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia’s economy is heading for its sixth year of recession, as ongoing deleveraging efforts and structural weaknesses depress growth. Amid worrying public debt dynamics, Croatia’s government increased its fiscal consolidation efforts and adopted some structural reforms.

Economic Update

Germany: mild winter dominates the figures

The German economy had a strong start of 2014 growing 0.8% q-o-q. The growth acceleration can partly be attributed to the soft winter that boosted construction activity. Therefore we expect a somewhat lower growth figure for the current quarter.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

Economic growth in 14Q1 was slightly disappointing, but Mexico’s economic outlook is improving considerably, as almost all intended structural reforms are approved. The most important one –energy- is likely to be approved soon.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia’s economy deteriorated; growth fell and the Ruble depreciated. In recent weeks the situation has improved, but risks remain to the downsize, as we may not exclude additional sanctions from the west.

Column

Nieuwe werkelijkheid, ander doel (Dutch)

De periode van begin jaren tachtig tot 2007 is inmiddels door economen geboekstaafd als 'de Grote Matiging'. Een periode van gelijkmatige, redelijk voorspelbare economische groei en lage inflatie.

Country Report

Country Report Aruba

Although Aruba’s economy grew again in 2013 its economic outlook remains bleak. Government finances in particular are a reason for concern, as Aruba’s deficit is still large, its debt level high and control over public finances weak.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The policy focus in Indonesia is on macroeconomic stabilisation, while protectionist policies have been implemented in the past months. Growth is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2014. No major new structural reforms are expected from the next government.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

The Czech Republic’s economy is heading for a relatively broad-based recovery, after it emerged from an 18-month recession last year. On the political front, early elections following a major corruption scandal yielded a less eurosceptical cabinet.