RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

How serious is China’s housing market bubble?

Housing prices in China have been rising rapidly since the beginning of 2015 and it is the question whether or not this is supported by economic fundamentals. Possible negative economic consequences might be severe, since 12% of Chinese urban inhabitants live in ‘bubble-cities’.

Economic Report

“As good as it gets” (Dutch)

De kans dat de wereldeconomie harder gaat groeien dan nu het geval is lijkt gering, aangezien vele grote economieën op hun economisch potentieel zitten. Deze is aangetast door jaren van bovenmatige liquiditeit.

Column

Stop met hopen op morgen (Dutch)

Als u de afgelopen jaren ons Economisch Kwartaalbericht met enige regelmaat heeft gelezen, dan bent u geregeld zinnen tegengekomen als ‘de neerwaartse risico’s zijn groter dan de opwaartse’ of ‘de kans bestaat dat de groei ook komend jaar lager uitvalt’. En niet voor niets.

Economic Comment

Stilte voor een storm? (Dutch)

Groei houdt stand begin 2016 maar blijft omgeven door neerwaartse risico’s. Stijgende grondstofprijzen helpen opkomende economieën. De economische situatie blijft fundamenteel broos en afhankelijk van (wijzigingen in) monetair beleid.

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.

Country Report

South Korea: still going strong

Government stimulus helps South Korea’s economy hold ground against domestic and external headwinds. Tensions with North Korea picked up, but are unlikely to have severe consequences.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.

Country Report

Indonesia: Widodo is turning the tide

Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.