Special
Italy’s government headed by Mario Draghi faces a major task and serious challenges. Nevertheless, we argue that Draghi’s arrival has brightened Italy’s future. The economy should reach its pre-crisis level mid-2023, helped by the EU Recovery fund.
Special
After a harsh start of the year, the Eurozone economic outlook should start to improve from next quarter. With help of the EU recovery fund, the economy will hit its pre-pandemic level mid-2022. Yet only if the vaccination campaign gains ample speed.
Special
Markets have been in the grips of ‘reflation’. Unless wage inflation picks up or governments stimulate beyond covid-19, the current upward forces on inflation will prove transient. Therefore, the ECB is expected to look through this rise in inflation.
Special
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.
Special Dutch version
The EU Taxonomy is a new ‘green language’ that helps to identify sustainable investments. Large public-interest companies within the EU will soon be required to report which part of their turnover and expenditure is in line with this.
Special
This Special forecasts the world order of 2030. We shows how past world orders collapsed due to weakening hegemonic power and project to 2030 show while the US will likely remain top dog, our world order will again be far more fragmented overall.
Special
So far the EU has often taken a backseat in international matters, but the EU is waking up to a new geopolitical reality. Has the EU become more assertive? And what role does Germany, as the natural leader of the bloc, play?
Special
The corona crisis has caused major social, economic and political upheaval and has increased uncertainty about the future. We use scenario analysis to shed light on where countries around the world may be headed next.
Special
The negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal are reaching a climax. Even as the scope of the aspired agreement remains limited, there is a non-negligible chance that the talks still collapse. However, the economic effects are overshadowed by the pandemic.
Special
We think that Italy’s GDP volume contracted by close to 17% y-o-y in the second quarter. The economy has started to recover, yet full recovery is unlikely before 2025. Public finances are set to deteriorate vastly, but a banking crisis is not imminent.
Special
Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.
Special Dutch version
The Eurozone economy contracted by 3.8% in Q1 due to COVID-19. France, Spain and Italy fared substantially worse. While very weak, these figures are still only the tip of the iceberg. The contraction in Q2 will be considerably sharper.
Special
We have revised our economic forecasts and expect the global economy to contract by 2.6% in 2020. How quickly the economy recovers after the coronavirus crisis depends on how fast people get back to work and whether productivity growth is permanently damaged.
