RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Column

Wrange Brexit-druiven (Dutch)

Het is vijfeneenhalf jaar na het Brexit-referendum, bijna twee jaar nadat het Verenigd Koninkrijk de Europese Unie daadwerkelijk verliet en ruim een jaar sinds de nieuwe handelsrelatie tussen beide een feit is. Als we de balans opmaken, blijkt het beloofde Brexit-dividend weinig waard.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.