RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Economic Comment

Phase One Monitor – December update

Despite reversing the downward trend in September and October, China is still miles behind the target. There is a clear divergence on the progress towards targets for agricultural and energy imports, and manufacturing and services imports.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global Economic Outlook: light at the end of the tunnel?

We expect the global economy to contract by 3.8% in 2020 and a recovery in 2021 of 4.5%. COVID vaccines will enable the economic recovery, although availability and distribution will vary globally. Economic challenges remain in form of divergent growth between sectors, Brexit, a growing share of ‘zombie firms’ and US-China trade tensions.

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global Economic Outlook: Waves of uncertainty

The global economy has bottomed out and started its recovery. However, the recovery is marred by uncertainties such as more waves of coronavirus infections, lurking negative effects on the labor market and productivity and rising geopolitical tensions.