RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.

Special

Four rays of hope amid the gloom of coronavirus

The coronavirus has a devastating impact on societies and economies, but never before have so many resources been channelled at finding ways to mitigate a virus. Hopes are pinned on vaccines, medicines, testing and increased health care capacity.

Special

Brexit: Outlook 2020

Brexit has finally become a done deal, but the next phase of the negotiations is much broader in scope. The little time available limits the potential of any EU-UK agreement. Indeed, Brexit has been gradually defined in much harder ways.