RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

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Brexit: Living apart together

The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.

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Brexit: Keep Talking

The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

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Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.