RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

UK: Stagflation nation

The economy of the United Kingdom experiences a ‘European’ demand shock but also has ‘American’ labour shortages. Weak growth and high inflation is the result. Meanwhile, there is a constant threat of a trade war with the European Union.

Special

The Third Round of French Elections

On June 12 and 19, the French will go to the ballot boxes for the legislative elections. Polls indicate that Macron’s center coalition is set to win a majority, but this is far from certain. If he isn’t able to secure a majority, his hands will be tied to a significant extent.

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Special

Ukraine War/Sanctions: How We Would Pay for the War?

Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine linger despite recent possible de-escalation. RaboResearch has modelled the macroeconomic impact of three war scenarios. Worryingly, we see a high risk/reward scenario for Russia rather than just downside or for a more violent world order.