RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Re-appraising Eurozone inflation

Another revision to our Eurozone forecast brings into question the timing of peak inflation and how fast it will decline afterwards. Commodities and supply chains cannot fully explain recent inflation surprises, suggesting that some of this may be structural.

Special

Ukraine War/Sanctions: How We Would Pay for the War?

Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine linger despite recent possible de-escalation. RaboResearch has modelled the macroeconomic impact of three war scenarios. Worryingly, we see a high risk/reward scenario for Russia rather than just downside or for a more violent world order.

Special

German elections: Green means 'Go'

The Social Democrats are in pole position to lead Germany’s next coalition government, but protracted negotiations seem likely. A best guess is that Scholz will eventually lead a ‘Traffic light’ coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. There are, however, considerable divides to bridge and it could potentially take months before the successor to Merkel is finally decided.

Special

Gasflation

US and European natural gas prices have jumped to multi-year highs; to the extent that comparisons with the 1970’s oil crises are perhaps not as far-fetched as some would think.

Special

Germany: better times ahead?

The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.

Special

Geopolitieke kansen en bedreigingen voor Nederland (Dutch)

De toenemende rol van geopolitiek in de economie brengt zowel bedreigingen als kansen met zich mee. Nederland heeft een goed uitgangspunt door zijn sterke concurrentiepositie maar ook kwetsbaarheden zoals de afhankelijkheid van bepaalde buitenlandse goederen en diensten.