Special
Hungary and Poland are blocking the implementation of the EUR 750bn European crisis recovery fund. The risk is non-negligible that talks remain in deadlock in the short term. A protracted standoff could have serious economic and market implications.
Special
Can we just print extra money to tackle the corona crisis? We conclude that only seven (!) countries in the world meet our proposed MMT criteria: leaving aside the US, these countries need the rare combination of a sovereign currency, simultaneous fiscal deficit and current account surplus, plus good governance.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.
Special Dutch version
Rising support for populist parties and the challenges imposed by the migration crisis weigh on EU cohesion, political stability and the implementation of structural reforms. A UK exit from the block could have far-reaching consequences.
Special
Institutional quality and economic development reinforce each other over the longer term, but we argue that institutional quality leads this virtuous circle. It unlocks growth potential and does not intrinsically suffer from diminishing returns.
Special Dutch version
Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.
