Special
Hungary and Poland are blocking the implementation of the EUR 750bn European crisis recovery fund. The risk is non-negligible that talks remain in deadlock in the short term. A protracted standoff could have serious economic and market implications.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
Special
Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.
Special Dutch version
Rising support for populist parties and the challenges imposed by the migration crisis weigh on EU cohesion, political stability and the implementation of structural reforms. A UK exit from the block could have far-reaching consequences.
