RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Scotland: A proxy vote for independence?

The Scottish regional election is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of the UK. Scottish independence has returned to the top of the agenda and the SNP will argue to have a fresh mandate. The economic argument for Scottish independence is weak, but the Conservatives aren’t in the position to credibly make this case.

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

Special

Brexit: Living apart together

The EU-UK trade agreement marks the start of a complex relationship in which the UK and the EU will have to learn to live together separately. This won’t be without frictions.

Economic Comment

Phase One Monitor – December update

Despite reversing the downward trend in September and October, China is still miles behind the target. There is a clear divergence on the progress towards targets for agricultural and energy imports, and manufacturing and services imports.

Economic Report

United States: Biden's challenges

Under a Biden administration foreign and trade policy will remain focused on meeting the challenge of China as the main rival of the US. However, the fiscal policy plans of the Democrats are likely to be stopped by the Republicans in the Senate.