RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Luxembourg: staying on top in a changing environment

Luxembourg continued to show robust growth in 2015. New fiscal and financial regulation is heading towards Luxembourg, challenging its financial sector-driven growth model.

Country Report

France: Growth returns but remains structurally weak

Economic activity is recovering after several years of near-zero growth. But the French economy still faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitive position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Country Report

Belgium: recovery at a snail's pace

The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.

Country Report

Germany: stable economic growth with challenges ahead

The German economy performs well on the back of a competitive export sector and is rebalancing towards domestic demand, driven by a strong labour market. The recent surge in immigration poses a significant challenge for the German economy.

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

Economic growth in Luxembourg remains strong, but international regulatory changes could chal-lenge the country’s economic model and strong fiscal position in the future.

Country Report

Country report United Kingdom

The UK economy has seen more balanced growth lately: wage growth has returned, debt levels are gradually falling and the housing market has cooled down. However, a low Euro weighs on export performance while the risk of a Brexit has increased.

Country Report

Country report Portugal

The Portuguese economy returned to growth in 2014 but medium term prospects remain weak. Meanwhile, with an election this year, the reform effort while this year’s budget is based on overly optimistic assumptions.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain its competitiveness while domestic demand strengthens. The low quality of employment created may hurt productivity growth. We expect to see political fragmentation at the national level.

Country Report

Country report Ireland

The strong rebound of the Irish economy supported private sector deleveraging while the housing prices rebounded strongly. With the budget deficit down and political stability enduring, the situation in Ireland is set to improve further.

Country Report

Country report Italy

Italy’s economy shrank again in 2014, and is expected to only recover slowly. Political stability has improved a bit and the government’s reform agenda is promising. Some major reforms have already been achieved, but progress is and will remain slow.

Country Report

Country Report France

In the short-term, low oil prices and the weak euro will support economic growth. But the French economy also faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitiveness position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

The German economy performs well on the back of improved domestic demand and a competitive export sector. The public sector is effective in reducing debt. The housing market in the big cities remains buoyant, but is moderating slowly.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

Despite the improvement of the short term economic outlook, several bottlenecks of the Spanish economy (rigid labour market, weak banking sector) desire policy urgency. Unfortunately, upcoming elections are clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Greece

The outlook of the Greek economy outlook is improving, while progress under the bailout program remains broadly on track. That said, future political stability cannot be taken for granted and might weigh on the ability to push through with reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

The outlook for Portugal has improved in recent months, in terms of both economic recovery and future market access. However, this and next year’s election cycle are expected to weigh on support for further structural reforms.