RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Is the Greek debt saga finally over?

A large cash buffer and new debt relief measures limit the risk the Greek government runs into payment difficulties in the short run. Yet due to its high debt Greece stays dependent upon the mercy of Eurozone partners and the markets for a long time.

Special

The voice of Italy

Sunday 4 December, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform that should support policymaking in Italy. Yet the reform is not without downsides. The suggestion that a 'No'-vote would put Italy on a path towards leaving the Eurozone is wrong.

Special

EU exit contagion risk

In this Special we focus on political exit contagion risk of ‘Brexit’ to other EU countries. We look at the current political landscape in the EU and the rising trend of Euroscepticism. Although we still consider a repeat of ‘Brexit’ more unlikely than likely in all member states, some countries are certainly worth watching in the year ahead.

Country Report

Luxembourg: staying on top in a changing environment

Luxembourg continued to show robust growth in 2015. New fiscal and financial regulation is heading towards Luxembourg, challenging its financial sector-driven growth model.

Country Report

Portugal: weak reform momentum threatens feeble growth

Portugal continued to grow in 2015, after exiting the EU/IMF bailout programme in 2014, which signals a substantial increase of economic and financial stability. However, reform momentum is weak while the country still has many vulnerabilities.

Country Report

Switzerland: quick economic rebound after massive appreciation 2015

The Swiss export sector was affected by a sharp appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) following the Swiss central bank’s (SNB) decision to scrap the currency ceiling early 2015. However, economic growth held up and we expect a rebound of economic growth and exports this year.

Country Report

Ireland: The Celtic Tiger is back

Ireland posted very strong growth of 7.8% last year which supports deleveraging and house prices but asset quality of banks remains poor and could hurt banks and the government in the future. As possibly worst affected, Ireland is closely following the Brexit debate.

Country Report

Country Report Cyprus

Cyprus is in the midst of a severe economic depression. With aid from the EU and IMF, the country is slowly picking itself up, but there is a long road ahead. Negotiations on reunification of the island have recommenced and could (in the long term) lead to an improvement in the economic environment.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.