Column
Hoe China een blik biedt in ons herstel (Dutch)
Het economisch herstel van China biedt wellicht een kijkje in de toekomst van Nederland. Daar is het initiële herstel snel gegaan, maar het laatste gedeelte gaat langzamer.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
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Economic Report
Why India is wise not to join RCEP
On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.
Economic Update
Emerging markets vulnerability heatmap
The emerging markets heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of the relative vulnerability of eighteen emerging markets. Results show that Asian countries are in relatively good shape, while Latin American countries are most vulnerable.
Economic Report
Kan digitaal centralebankgeld de financiële inclusie bevorderen? (Dutch)
CBDC kan helpen om mensen zonder bankrekening aan te sluiten op het girale geldstelsel. Dit speelt overigens vooral in opkomende markten.
Economic Report
Hoe de Chinese digitale munt de internationale positie van de renminbi kan versterken (Dutch)
China voert wellicht volgend jaar een nieuwe digitale munt in, de DCEP. De DCEP kan de internationale positie van de renminbi vergroten, vooral in de handel tussen China en zijn buitenlandse handelspartners. Dit kan ten koste gaan van de internationale positie van de euro.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global Economic Outlook: light at the end of the tunnel?
We expect the global economy to contract by 3.8% in 2020 and a recovery in 2021 of 4.5%. COVID vaccines will enable the economic recovery, although availability and distribution will vary globally. Economic challenges remain in form of divergent growth between sectors, Brexit, a growing share of ‘zombie firms’ and US-China trade tensions.
Special
China’s economic recovery: A tale of two speeds
China’s economy is recovering. However, the recovery is unequal. In addition, Covid-19 has increased income inequalities and regional differences. China’s situation might give a glimpse into imbalances in the recovery of other countries as well.
Special
Economic developments in India: A mixed bag of ups and downs
Economic developments in India are mixed. On the upside, there is the prospect of an effective vaccine, fresh government stimulus and better economic performance than anticipated. On the downside, there is a risk of a second wave and the economy continues to struggle with high inflation.
Economic Comment
Japan: Economic and external woes continue
Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.
Economic Comment
China: Increasing self-reliance
China’s new Five Year Plan signals the country’s increased focus on self-reliance. Meanwhile, the economic recovery is continuing. Tensions between the US and China are here to stay, irrespective of who the new US president will be.
Economic Report
India: What is the impact of the next US president?
The policy plans of the next president of the United States has consequences for the Indian economy in terms of the USD/INR trajectory, trade and GDP metrics and geopolitics.
Special
Indonesia: Uncertainties hinder quick economic recovery
Indonesia is being hit relatively hard by COVID-19 infections compared to other Asian Emerging Markets. The lingering effects of the pandemic put a brake on a swift economic recovery. Therefore we expect a contraction of GDP of 2.6% in 2020.
Special
The World in 2030: Fragments of the Imagination
This Special forecasts the world order of 2030. We shows how past world orders collapsed due to weakening hegemonic power and project to 2030 show while the US will likely remain top dog, our world order will again be far more fragmented overall.
Column
Amerika mag niet meer zeuren over protectionisme (Dutch)
De Amerikanen moeten vooral niet zeuren over oneerlijke handelspraktijken van China, Duitsland of India. Zelf zijn zij namelijk behoorlijk protectionistisch, schrijft Rabo-econoom Hugo Erken in deze column.