RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Economy of India recovers from second wave of Covid-19

India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.

Special

Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap

Strong economic recovery by advanced economies is leading to increasing inflation expectations. Tighter monetary policy in advanced economies potentially threatens emerging market economic recovery. Our vulnerability Heatmap provides a comprehensive overview of important economic indicators to signal potential vulnerabilities in 18 economies.

Special

Germany: better times ahead?

The German economy will recover quickly, driven by foreign- and pent-up demand. Its traditional unease with soaring prices will be tested. The September election is going to be crucial: Germany faces some tough decisions.

Economic Report

China: The wider implications of Huarong’s woes

One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.

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Waarom het Chinees vijfjarenplan op een Rubiks kubus lijkt (Dutch)

Het nieuwe Chinese vijfjarenplan heeft veel weg van een Rubiks kubus, waarbij een draai van het ene economisch vlak naar de ene kant leidt tot een ongewenste draai ergens anders. China zal dan ook afwegingen moeten maken tussen haar doelstellingen.

Economic Report

China GDP growth outlook: Still recovering, but losing steam

China’s Q1 GDP growth surged to 18.3% on a year-to-year basis, mainly due to the low base in Q1 2020. We think the pace of the recovery will slow as the initial pent up demand in China dies out and policy support is scaled back.

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Special

Implications of the EU China investment deal (CAI)

The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) should improve EU companies’ access to China and ‘level’ the playing field. However, its commitments are ‘weak’ and the envisaged dispute resolution mechanism lacks teeth.

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Hoe China een blik biedt in ons herstel (Dutch)

Het economisch herstel van China biedt wellicht een kijkje in de toekomst van Nederland. Daar is het initiële herstel snel gegaan, maar het laatste gedeelte gaat langzamer.

Economic Report

Why India is wise not to join RCEP

On November 15th, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was signed, but India decided to opt out. Many consider this a policy mistake, but we argue that India’s choice is actually quite rational.