RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Asia

In 2013, global economic growth is expected to be 3?%, with growth estimated to remain subdued in the US (1?%), the eurozone (?%) and Japan (1%). China's economy is expected to grow by between 7?% and 8?%.

Special

Financieren voor groei. Nu en in de toekomst (Dutch)

Hoe financieren ondernemingen hun groei? We concluderen dat het grootbedrijf zijn (vaste) activa voor een belangrijk deel financiert met aangetrokken eigen vermogen, terwijl het MKB voor zijn financiering is aangewezen op vreemd vermogen.

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Europe

The start of 2012 saw many Emerging European economies fall back into recession. Although the outlook for 2013 is somewhat less bleak, there is little reason for optimism. The region's proximity to the eurozone renders it vulnerable.

Special

Outlook 2013: Eurozone

While desperately in need of growth, eurozone's GDP is unlikely to pick up in the second half of this year. Although market sentiment regarding the European debt crisis seems to be on a cautious positive trend, the outlook for 2013 is bleak.

Special

Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.

Special

Outlook 2013: Sub-Sahara Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has grown rapidly over the past decade. Despite the global financial crisis of 2008-09, Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at an average of 4.7% between 2000-2010 and might experience accelerated growth relative to the past few years.

Special

Outlook 2013: United Kingdom

The UK recovery remains unimpressive due to harsh austerity measures in a weak macroeconomic environment. We maintain the view that the pace of fiscal adjustment must be slowed down so that recovery gets a chance.

Country Report

Argentina (Country Report)

Argentina's self-contradictory and interventionist macroeconomic policy mix is under more and more pressure. As the years of high growth seem to have ended, president's Cristina Kirchner's popularity has been falling rapidly.

Country Report

Maldives (Country Report)

The political situation in the Maldives escalated in February 2012, when President Nasheed resigned. With the presidential and general elections planned for 2013 and 2014, respectively, more political turmoil is expected.

Country Report

Qatar (Country Report)

The domestic social situation in Qatar is stable, but an escalation of the civil war in Syria and the conflict between Israel and Iran remain geopolitical risks. We estimate economic growth at 6.5% in 2012.

Country Report

Russia (Country Report)

The social unrest which marred Putin's presidency has not escalated, due to the government's fierce crackdown on opposition protests. Economic growth is forecast at a moderate 3.8% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country Report)

Taiwan's GDP growth is estimated to slow to 1.3% this year. Taiwan's banking sector is heavily exposed to the risky real estate and export sectors. Taiwan's has ample foreign exchange buffers to prevent liquidity problems.

Country Report

Indonesia (Country Update)

Indonesia's economy has shown great resilience and economic growth is expected to be around 6% this and next year. The political situation is less bright with the reform drive grinded to a halt and the ruling PD party connected to corruption scandals

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In 3Q12, economic growth slowed in many emerging markets, including China, Mexico and Poland. This triggered the IMF and others to revise their estimates downward. For China, the end of the slowdown seems in sight, but this is not the case for India.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

Zwakkere sentimentindicatoren wijzen op een lagere groei in 12K4. Dankzij een sterke export waren de harde data beter dan verwacht. De huizenprijzen bleven stijgen in 12H1. De stijgende werkloosheid drukt nog niet het consumentenvertrouwen.