RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Philippines: strong economic growth amidst upcoming elections

The May 2016 presidential elections will help determine whether the recent favourable developments in terms of governance will continue. Growth has remained rather high, and is expected to continue to do so in the near term.

Country Report

South Korea: still going strong

Government stimulus helps South Korea’s economy hold ground against domestic and external headwinds. Tensions with North Korea picked up, but are unlikely to have severe consequences.

Country Report

Indonesia: Widodo is turning the tide

Economic growth in Indonesia slowed down in 2015 to a post Global Financial Crisis low, mainly due to weak external demand. We expect a gradual economic recovery in 2016, driven by rising infrastructure investments due to a more decisive government.

Country Report

Malaysia: corruption scandal is haunting the prime minister

Growth in Malaysia slowed down as a result of lower commodity prices. The involvement of PM Najib in a large corruption scandal is hurting his position and international investors’ confidence. This has resulted in increased external pressure on the economy and the balance of payments.

Country Report

China: turbulence on financial markets accompanied by fall of FX reserves

Turbulence on financial markets has been accompanied by a strong fall of China’s still sizable stock of FX reserves. Growth in industry and construction took a hit in 2015, but service sector growth appears to have remained stable. China’s economic challenges are big.

Country Report

Thailand: heading for extended military rule

Thailand is heading for extended military rule, as the National Assembly rejected the proposal for a new constitution paving the way to early elections. Economic growth remains relatively weak, forcing the government to revert to populist economic policies.

Country Report

Country Report India

Economic growth has been strong recently and is expected to strengthen somewhat in the near future. Although economic policy in India is moving into the right direction, the pace is slow, which eventually might hurt economic growth.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The Indonesian economy has slowed down due to lower commodity prices and the inability of President Widodo to implement reforms and planned infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, he has resorted to populist policies to boost popular support.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

One and a half year after the coup, the military regime is still in power. Elections are again delayed and stability is preserved through repression. In the meantime, the economy is performing disappointingly with tourism being the only bright spot.

Country Report

Country Report China

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.

Country Report

Country Report Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan had a less fortunate economic year in 2014, caused by the decreasing oil price in the second half of last year and the negative wealth effects as a result of the tenge devaluation. For 2015, substantially lower economic growth and twin deficits are expected.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Growth in Malaysia is expected to slow slightly in the coming years. Lower oil prices will hurt government income in 2015. As the political career of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has ended, the opposition coalition has been weakened.

Country Report

Country Report India

India is experiencing an upward momentum. Growth is accelerating and the government is incrementally implementing needed reforms, inflation is easing and the current account deficit has narrowed.

Country Report

Country report China

Growth in China is slowing. The housing market adjustment is probably not yet over, while the government may soon allow some trust loan defaults. The anti-corruption campaign has continued.