RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

When President Peña Nieto took office in December last year, he promised to deliver growth. The current figures are however disappointing, but, if his reform proposals will be proved in the coming months, Mexico’s outlook will definitely improve.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

As her party is unlikely to obtain a two-thirds majority at the congressional elections of late October, Cristina Kirchner is becoming a lame-duck president. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves levels continue to decline.

Country Report

Country Report Panama

Economic growth in Panama is strong due to large infrastructure projects. Whether these projects will boost growth structurally, to an extent that it will outweigh the loss of short-term infrastructural investment-driven growth, remains to be seen.

Country Report

Country Report Curacao

Curacao is currently facing difficult times, both politically and economically. While economic growth was again disappointing in 2012, Curacao’s political year was characterized with four different prime-ministers and the killing of a politician.

Country Report

Country Report Sint Maarten

Since its independence in 2010, St. Maarten has been building and extending its own institutional framework, whereby this process is executed slower than expected. Furthermore, economic performance has been weak in recent years.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

The recent mass protests show that Brazil’s middle class has become more vocal in its demands for better public services. Meanwhile, economic growth has continued to disappoint.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.

Country Report

Country Report Suriname

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

Important sectors of the Mexican economy are characterized by a low level of competition. Positive in this respect is that new President Peña Nieto intends to reform these markets with the help of the opposition.

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Investment in large mining projects is likely to continue in Peru, although an escalation in the conflict with local communities could hurt the investment climate. A U-turn in his energy policies has dented the popularity of President Humala.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s economy is likely to recover modestly in 2013, but the peso has fallen rapidly on the informal market, as a devaluation is widely expected. Meanwhile, there is the risk that Argentina will enter a technical default.

Country Report

Country Report Aruba

The shutdown of Aruba’s oil refinery has put a major drag on economic growth. The economy contracted by -1.2% in 2012, while the growth figure for 2011 was revised downwards. Due to the GDP contraction, public finance ratio’s worsened considerably.

Country Report

Country Report Paraguay

Paraguay’s GDP growth is estimated to increase to around 9.5% in 2013, as conditions have improved markedly recently. Fernando Lugo was impeached last year and interim president Franco will remain in charge until the April 2013 elections.

Country Report

Country Report Costa Rica

In 2011 and 2012 the Costa Rican economy grew by 4.2 and 4.9%, respectively. The outlook is rather favorable, we expect the economy to grow by around 4% per year in the coming years. Main risk right now is the financial position of the government.