RaboResearch - Economic Research

Column

Te mooi om waar te zijn (Dutch)

Een belangrijke les van de mondiale financiële crisis van 2008 is dat de kapitaalbuffers van banken fors moeten worden verstevigd. De strengere eisen aan de risico-gewogen kapitaalratio van het Bazels Comité –Bazel III– voorzien hierin.

Column

De bankenunie-boemerang (Dutch)

Als een boemerang geen doel treft, keert hij terug naar de werper. De politieke discussie rondom de oprichting van een bankenunie doet mij sterk denken aan zo’n boemerang. De belangrijkste reden van de worp vormen de zogenaamde ‘legacy assets’.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Column

Wankel perspectief (Dutch)

Met deze titel presenteren wij een voorzichtig positieve Visie op 2014. We benadrukken in deze publicatie primair drie positieve aanknopingspunten. Maar we zien en bespreken ook de grootste risico’s die maken dat we dit perspectief als wankel bestempelen.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The third free presidential elections in Indonesia’s history (1H2014) will bring a new president into office, as Yudhoyono is barred from participating after completing two terms. There is no clear favorite, increasing policy uncertainty. Also, the external position is weakening.

Column

Monetaire Odyssee (Dutch)

We leven in een wereld van ongekend ruim monetair beleid. Veel commentatoren -onder wie wijzelf- benadrukken dat we ons qua monetair beleid zelfs in onbekende wateren hebben begeven. Dat klinkt wellicht onheilspellend, maar dat is het niet helemaal.

Country Report

Country Report Cameroon

In 2012, the economic performance of Cameroon improved on the back of the oil sector, while the political risks persisted, despite milestones having been achieved.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Due to a weak external environment, Taiwan’s economy has been performing weakly, but a slight growth acceleration is expected. Political infighting in the ruling KMT party has weakened the president’s position and will hamper policy implementation.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

The Russian economy has fallen into a recession this year. A fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth was announced in May, but we do not expect any short-term results. To gain more influence in the CIS region, Russia has resorted to strong-arm tactics.