RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

Supported by government measures, real GDP growth in South Korea has been accelerating. Meanwhile, tensions with North Korea have eased, for now. South Korea’s banking sector remains vulnerable to external liquidity risks and rising household debt.

Country Report

Country Report Kenya

Peaceful elections in 2013 restored confidence in Kenya’s political stability to some extent and bode well for economic development, while the large twin deficits remain a matter of concern.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

Turkey’s large current account deficit and its small stock of foreign reserves make it vulnerable to the effects of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, there have also been several important political developments.

Country Report

Country Report Sri Lanka

Although economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed down last year, elevated inflation remains a concern. While both the budget deficit and the current account deficit declined slightly in 2012, both deficits remain large.

Country Report

Country Report Mongolia

Mongolia’s economy slowed in 2012 on the back of lower demand from China and slowing FDI inflows. The government has implemented policies to support growth. A more cooperative stance towards foreign investors should help to regain their confidence.

Country Report

Country Report Sint Maarten

Since its independence in 2010, St. Maarten has been building and extending its own institutional framework, whereby this process is executed slower than expected. Furthermore, economic performance has been weak in recent years.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia’s economy is recovering slightly with the help of IMF support and real GDP growth is expected to be positive again in 2013. However, Croatia’s EU accession and the lack of structural reforms negatively affect Bosnia’s economic outlook.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

The recent mass protests show that Brazil’s middle class has become more vocal in its demands for better public services. Meanwhile, economic growth has continued to disappoint.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

The new parliament has an opportunity to push through economic reforms if it can control the traditionally high tensions with the government. Major challenges to boost the country’s important oil-sector remain..

Country Report

Country Report Uzbekistan

Economic growth in Uzbekistan is expected to remain strong in coming years. Political tensions have increased over the lingering uncertainty concerning the succession of President Karimov.

Country Report

Country Report Mauritius

The economy of Mauritius, an offshore financial centre in the Indian Ocean, suffered from the turmoil in Europe. Still, the government found the room for significant fiscal consolidation.

Economic Update

United Kingdom: consumers benefiting from rising asset prices

The recent batch of positive data suggests that the risks to our growth forecast are tilted to the upside. The strengthening job market, receding uncertainty, rising asset prices and looser credit conditions are pushing up sentiment.

Economic Update

France: improving conditions

France might be able to prevent another GDP contraction in 13Q2. This expectation is based on better-than-expected household consumption and industrial production figures. Overall, we take note of an unexpected improvement of economic conditions.

Economic Update

Belgium: a bumpy road to recovery

In 13Q2, GDP growth turned positive after stagnation in 13Q1. Going forward, the recovery is expected to continue, but at a fairly slow pace and subject to downside risks. Robust labour market recovery is not expected before the end of the year.