RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania’s recovery from the crisis in 2009-2010, when GDP fell by 6.5%, has yet to gain pace. We expect the economy to have grown by a meager 0.2% in 2012. The slow growth is largely caused by the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slow demand.

Country Report

Country Report Rwanda

Rwanda’s is in trouble. Due to the UN’s claims of involvement in the violence in DR Congo, several donors withdrew their support. This hits Rwanda hard, as donor income accounts for a large part of foreign exchange and fiscal income.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

Economic growth in Uruguay eased somewhat in 2012, but nevertheless remained decent. The government has tried to fight high inflation through a price freeze, while the overall policy framework remained friendly.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

The largest country risks in Lebanon lie in the political sphere, as conflicts between the government and opposition are fierce. The economic outlook is bleak as the regional unrest, particularly in Syria, will weigh on economic activity.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Driven by strong domestic demand, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 5.2% in 2012, but weak external demand may lead to a growth slowdown this year. In mid-2013, general elections will be held that will likely be won by the current government.

Country Report

Country Report Bermuda

Following its fourth year in recession, Bermuda’s economy is expected to stagnate this year. The local government has to embark on fiscal consolidation soon, but these efforts should not affect the island’s important (re)insurance sector.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk (Dutch)

De Franse economie kende een zwak 12K4. Wij verwachten een milde BBP-krimp. Daarnaast valt op dat de stemmingsindicatoren van januari een verslechtering laten zien, dit in tegenstelling tot de lichte verbetering in andere eurozone landen.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk (Dutch)

Het BBP van de VK kromp in 12K4. Met een daling van de werkloosheid naar 7,7% blijft de arbeidsmarkt positief verrassen. Naar verwachting zal de inflatie verder stijgen. Er zijn signalen dat het 'Funding for Lending' schema verder op stoom komt.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

GDP contracted slightly in 12Q4. Growth is expected to have been week across the board and is not likely to rebound strongly in 2013. On the upside, inflation is on a downward trend and agreements are reached to keep labour costs in check.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In some emerging markets, economic growth has started to pick up in the fourth quarter of last year, but not in all. This year should be a better year than 2012, but growth will remain relatively weak and below the long-term trend.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The French economy seems to have contracted mildly in 12Q4. Going forward, sentiment indicators in January point to a deterioration of economic activity, in contrast to the slight improvement seen in several other eurozone countries.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

GDP contracted in 12Q4. The labour market continues to surprise on the upside. Inflation is expected to rise further, which will be an extra headwind for households this year. There are signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme is gaining traction.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Het BBP kromp in 12K4 licht. Vermoedelijk was de groei over de gehele linie zwak en ook voor 2013 verwachten wij geen sterke toename in het BBP. Positief nieuws is de dalende inflatie en de in het verschiet liggende loonkostenbeperking.