RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

United Kingdom: Brexit hangover

Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.

Economic Comment

Brexit update – Brexit 2.0

Boris Johnson is the new British Prime Minister and his team of hardcore Brexiteers points towards a tougher stance on Brexit under his leadership. Brexit is just about to get messier in the coming months.

Economic Report

Brexit update - Johnson in the lead

Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Flextension, the sequel

Article 50 was extended for a second time during a special EU summit on 10 April. The new cut-off date is 31 October, the date by which the UK must have approved the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and have translated it to domestic law. An earlier departure is possible as soon as the UK ratifies a withdrawal deal with the EU.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Leading on the edge or off the edge?

On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.

Column

Brexitwaanzin (Dutch)

Het Verenigd Koninkrijk is het geboorteland van twee van de grootste economen aller tijden: Adam Smith en John Maynard Keynes. Het vaderland van economische theorie gedraagt zich nu alles behalve rationeel. Brexitwaanzin!

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Extreme brinkmanship

The British Parliament rejected the EU-UK Brexit deal on 14 January in a historic defeat for the government. The vote was expected to be a unique opportunity to change the Brexit course, but instead it left us in the same uncertainty.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: It's the turn of the UK Parliament now

The United Kingdom Parliament finally gets their turn on Brexit. In the evening of 15 January the MP’s will vote on the EU-UK deal and we expect that they will reject the current deal. That will push the UK into several weeks of political turbulence.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Deal done?

The EU council approved the EU-UK Brexit deal on 25 November. The document sets out the divorce conditions. It also includes an outline of the envisaged future economic partnership in the appendix. The approval of the UK parliament is still pending.

Column

There is no such thing as a costless Brexit

Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.