Economic Report
The great Brexit gamble paid off
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
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Economic Report
India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Economic Report
Storm in a tea cup or first step towards a transatlantic trade war?
In this report we assess the potential impact of US tariffs on European Union export goods worth USD 7.5bn. The use of a standard GTAP trade model enables us to analyse the economic impact across sectors and countries.
Economic Report
India’s economic slump: Is there worse in store or light at the end of the tunnel?
India’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in six years. At this point it is uncertain whether the economic slump has bottomed out. We have pencilled in a rebound in growth to 6% for fiscal q2, but there are substantial downward risks to this outlook.
Economic Report
Japan: Decent economic growth in first half of 2019, central bank weighs options
Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.
Economic Report
Hoe gevoelig is de Nederlandse economie voor ontwikkelingen in Hongkong? (Dutch)
De directe handels- en investeringsrelatie van Nederland met Hongkong lijkt op het eerste gezicht beperkt. Maar er zijn ook diverse indirecte effecten die we in ogenschouw moeten nemen, zoals de rol die verdere escalatie kan spelen bij het brede conflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China.
Economic Report
Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning
The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.
Economic Report
Welke Aziatische landen kunnen profiteren van een verplaatsing van productie uit China? (Dutch)
De handelsoorlog zal waarschijnlijk zorgen voor een versnelde verplaatsing van productie uit China. Onze nieuwe ‘Where Will They Go’ index laat zien Thailand, Maleisië, Vietnam, Taiwan en India waarschijnlijk zullen profiteren van deze verplaatsing.
Economic Report
India’s fiscal path remains slippery after Modi's BJP win
India’s consistent budget deficits are expected to continue over the coming years under a BJP-led government in the second term. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower elevated debt levels as India’s weak fiscal position is a major macroeconomic challenge.
Economic Report
Is India slipping back into bad habits?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.
Economic Report Dutch version
China: Cooling economy induces policymakers to fire up the stimulus engine (again)
Chinese economic growth continued its decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, bringing the annual growth figure for 2018 to 6.6%. This fits within our view of a gradual economic slowdown, but domestic and external risks are significantly on the rise.
Economic Report
India: 2019 Economic Outlook
In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.
Economic Report
India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it
There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.
Economic Report
De Italiaanse problemen komen niet door de euro (Dutch)
Al decennia lang gaat Italië gebukt onder lage economische groei en een hoge overheidsschuld. Italië is geen arm land met een van oudsher zwakke economie, maar decennia van zwak bestuur hebben tot een structureel ondermaatse groeiprestatie geleid.
