RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis

While we currently expect a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, there is a clear risk of a more U-shaped or even L-shaped recovery. There could also be effects on global growth beyond the 2021 horizon. We expect annual structural growth (up to 2030) in the US to drop from 1.6% to 1.4%. For the Netherlands, structural growth is set to decline from 1.3% to 1.1%.

Special

Scenario’s zijn onmisbaar bij voorspellen in crisistijd (Dutch)

Economische voorspellingen in crisistijd zijn nog onzekerder dan normaal. Daarom werken we met scenario-analyses. Voor de huidige crisis hebben wij aannames gemaakt over de lengte en omvang van de lockdown-maatregelen, het monetaire en begrotingsbeleid, de omvang van handelsbelemmeringen en structurele productiviteitseffecten.

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Special Dutch version

The permanent damage of Brexit

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.

Special

Assessing the economic impact of Brexit: Background report

The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.