RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report Dutch version

COVID-19 pushes Germany into recession

At the start of 2020 sentiment indicators indicated a lacklustre growth for the Germany economy. The COVID-19 virus drastically changed that view however. We have revised our forecast from 0.5% to -0.3%. We forecast a recession in the second quarter of 2020.

Economic Report

Brexit Update - Extension rebellion

Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Going nowhere fast

The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Deal done?

The EU council approved the EU-UK Brexit deal on 25 November. The document sets out the divorce conditions. It also includes an outline of the envisaged future economic partnership in the appendix. The approval of the UK parliament is still pending.

Economic Report

Italy is testing the limits

On 27 September the Italian government presented its budget target for 2019. The worsened outlook has shocked markets and kept them busy since. The government will expectedly temper part of its plans if necessary to calm markets. That said, the risk that it will do too little too late cannot be neglected.

Economic Report

Brexit update: squaring the circle

The UK government published a long awaited White Paper on the blueprint for the post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. The proposal brings more clarity but not more certainty. Hence the threat of a hard Brexit persists.