Special Dutch version
While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Economic growth in EMs disappoints again due to lower commodity prices and China’s slowdown. Higher growth in the Eurozone will result in a pick-up of growth in developed countries, but this will not be enough to prevent a slight slowdown in global growth.
Iran’s nuclear deal will be a clear plus for its economy and its trade partners. Globally, the economic impact is mainly through lower oil prices. Geopolitically, it might increase tensions within the Middle East as Iran becomes more powerful.
Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, it is strongly affected by the decreasing oil price since the second half of 2014.
Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms. Generous aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries gives it the financial space to gradually implement those reforms.
The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.